2019年(nian)1月(yue)3日,中國(guo)社會科學院(yuan)人口(kou)與勞(lao)動(dong)經濟研究所與社會科學文獻出版社共同(tong)舉辦(ban)的(de)《人口(kou)與勞(lao)動(dong)綠皮(pi)書:中國(guo)人口(kou)與勞(lao)動(dong)問題報告No.19》發布會在北京舉行。
2018年是改革開放40周(zhou)年。在經(jing)濟改革和對(dui)外開放的(de)推動(dong)(dong)下,中國(guo)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)發(fa)(fa)展取得了(le)歷史性(xing)的(de)巨(ju)大(da)進步(bu),完成了(le)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)轉變(bian),人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)質量和人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)城鎮化(hua)水平大(da)幅度(du)提高,人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)流動(dong)(dong)高度(du)活躍,為(wei)社(she)(she)會(hui)(hui)經(jing)濟發(fa)(fa)展貢獻了(le)豐(feng)厚的(de)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)紅利。進入21世紀以來(lai),由于“劉易斯(si)轉折(zhe)點”的(de)出現,當前(qian)勞動(dong)(dong)力增長處于停滯;勞動(dong)(dong)年齡人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)加(jia)(jia)速減少和老(lao)年人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)加(jia)(jia)速增長,導(dao)致人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)撫養比將會(hui)(hui)持續(xu)提高;以老(lao)年人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)增長為(wei)主導(dao)力量的(de)老(lao)齡化(hua)趨勢(shi)日(ri)益(yi)加(jia)(jia)劇。這(zhe)些趨勢(shi)性(xing)的(de)轉變(bian)不僅直接(jie)改變(bian)了(le)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)發(fa)(fa)展面臨的(de)形(xing)勢(shi)和任務,同時也給(gei)社(she)(she)會(hui)(hui)經(jing)濟發(fa)(fa)展帶來(lai)巨(ju)大(da)而深遠的(de)影響。
2019年(nian)是新中國成(cheng)立70周年(nian),也是實(shi)(shi)現全面(mian)建成(cheng)小康社會目標(biao)的(de)關(guan)鍵一年(nian)。就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)業形(xing)勢(shi)穩定至關(guan)重(zhong)要,就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)業工作(zuo)應該重(zhong)點關(guan)注(zhu)以下幾(ji)個(ge)方面(mian)問(wen)題:一是妥善(shan)應對過(guo)去幾(ji)年(nian)化(hua)解產能過(guo)剩和(he)地方債務(wu)風險過(guo)程中積累的(de)潛(qian)在(zai)就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)業影(ying)響,積極做(zuo)好就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)業轉(zhuan)移、技能培訓和(he)社會保障相(xiang)關(guan)工作(zuo);二(er)是監測貧困人(ren)(ren)口和(he)脫貧家庭的(de)就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)業狀況(kuang),繼續(xu)推進就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)業扶(fu)貧工作(zuo),增強脫貧攻堅成(cheng)效;三是關(guan)注(zhu)人(ren)(ren)口凈流(liu)出地區、資源枯(ku)竭地區等(deng)就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)業形(xing)勢(shi),防止出現局部性(xing)大規模失業;四是繼續(xu)做(zuo)好應屆高校畢業生、退(tui)伍(wu)軍人(ren)(ren)等(deng)重(zhong)點群體(ti)的(de)就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)業工作(zuo),同時(shi)關(guan)注(zhu)退(tui)休返(fan)聘或再就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)業人(ren)(ren)員、農村遷移老年(nian)人(ren)(ren)再就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)業等(deng)新現象,落實(shi)(shi)相(xiang)關(guan)就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)業政(zheng)策。
為(wei)應(ying)對(dui)數(shu)(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟對(dui)就(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)市場和就(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)制(zhi)度(du)所帶來的(de)各項挑(tiao)戰,我國(guo)要做好數(shu)(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟大環境下就(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)服(fu)務(wu)的(de)頂層設(she)計(ji),推動從工業(ye)經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟的(de)“千人(ren)一面(mian)”到數(shu)(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟下“千人(ren)千面(mian)”的(de)轉變,實現人(ren)口紅利向人(ren)才紅利的(de)跨越發(fa)展(zhan)。為(wei)了(le)激發(fa)數(shu)(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟的(de)全(quan)部(bu)潛力,政府要完善就(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)相關(guan)法律和社會保(bao)障制(zhi)度(du),提高制(zhi)度(du)和政策的(de)靈活性與普(pu)惠性;要重(zhong)視數(shu)(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)人(ren)才培(pei)養、數(shu)(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)技能(neng)培(pei)訓,加強數(shu)(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)人(ren)力資源(yuan)開發(fa);要構(gou)建全(quan)國(guo)統(tong)一的(de)就(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)信息(xi)服(fu)務(wu)網絡,優化就(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)服(fu)務(wu)體系;要努力發(fa)展(zhan)新產(chan)業(ye)、新業(ye)態,充分(fen)發(fa)掘數(shu)(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟的(de)就(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)創(chuang)造能(neng)力。
中國人口發展面臨的六大趨勢性重大轉折
進(jin)入(ru)21世紀以來(lai)(lai),中國人口已(yi)經出現了幾個重大轉(zhuan)(zhuan)折,在未(wei)來(lai)(lai)一(yi)個時期(qi)內還將出現新的(de)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)折性(xing)(xing)變化(hua)。這些趨勢(shi)性(xing)(xing)的(de)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)變不(bu)僅直接改變了人口發展面(mian)臨的(de)形勢(shi)和任務(wu),同時也給(gei)社會經濟發展帶來(lai)(lai)巨大而深(shen)遠的(de)影響。
(一)勞動力變化趨勢的轉折
在過去的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)一(yi)(yi)個(ge)時(shi)期(qi)里,中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)經(jing)歷了勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)快速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)長,勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)無(wu)(wu)限供(gong)(gong)給曾經(jing)是中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)經(jing)濟(ji)高(gao)速(su)發展的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)要條件,也曾經(jing)是中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)經(jing)濟(ji)比較優勢的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)要基礎。進(jin)入(ru)21世紀后,勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)給發生(sheng)了重(zhong)大變化。首先是“劉易(yi)斯轉(zhuan)折(zhe)點”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)出(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)現:2003年(nian)(nian)(nian)出(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)現的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)“民(min)(min)工(gong)荒”標志著(zhu)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)無(wu)(wu)限供(gong)(gong)給時(shi)代(dai)(dai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)結(jie)束(蔡昉(fang),2008),都(dou)陽和(he)王(wang)美艷(2010)利(li)用(yong)2005年(nian)(nian)(nian)1%人口(kou)抽(chou)樣調查數(shu)據,并在考慮(lv)農(nong)村勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)結(jie)構(gou)和(he)個(ge)體特征的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)情況下(xia)對(dui)農(nong)村剩余勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)數(shu)量(liang)(liang)進(jin)行了估(gu)計(ji),他(ta)們的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)研(yan)究(jiu)結(jie)果(guo)顯(xian)示,在現有(you)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)市場(chang)狀況和(he)制(zhi)(zhi)度環境(jing)下(xia),農(nong)業(ye)中(zhong)(zhong)可供(gong)(gong)轉(zhuan)移的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)只剩下(xia)4300多萬(wan)(wan)。根據國(guo)家統(tong)計(ji)局公(gong)布的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)數(shu)據,2010~2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)間農(nong)民(min)(min)工(gong)數(shu)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)了3900萬(wan)(wan),其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)外(wai)出(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)農(nong)民(min)(min)工(gong)數(shu)量(liang)(liang)僅(jin)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)了1850萬(wan)(wan)。“民(min)(min)工(gong)荒”在東部沿海地區蔓(man)延之后,其(qi)他(ta)地區勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)市場(chang)也出(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)現了農(nong)民(min)(min)工(gong)供(gong)(gong)不應求(qiu)(qiu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)現象(xiang),農(nong)民(min)(min)工(gong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)工(gong)資(zi)水平(ping)逐年(nian)(nian)(nian)上漲,這(zhe)些證據都(dou)表明(ming)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)經(jing)濟(ji)到達了“劉易(yi)斯轉(zhuan)折(zhe)點”(蔡昉(fang)、都(dou)陽,2011)。其(qi)次是勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)齡人口(kou)數(shu)量(liang)(liang)開始減(jian)少(shao):2013年(nian)(nian)(nian)勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)齡人口(kou)(16~64歲)比前一(yi)(yi)年(nian)(nian)(nian)減(jian)少(shao)了160萬(wan)(wan),這(zhe)標志著(zhu)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)潛在勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)資(zi)源縮減(jian)時(shi)代(dai)(dai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)到來(lai)。到2017年(nian)(nian)(nian),勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)齡人口(kou)總(zong)共減(jian)少(shao)了578萬(wan)(wan),隨著(zhu)1950年(nian)(nian)(nian)代(dai)(dai)出(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)生(sheng)高(gao)峰隊列(lie)陸續超出(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)齡,勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)齡人口(kou)將(jiang)會(hui)加(jia)速(su)減(jian)少(shao)。聯合國(guo)(United Nations,2017)中(zhong)(zhong)方(fang)案預測(ce)結(jie)果(guo)顯(xian)示,中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)齡人口(kou)在未來(lai)很長一(yi)(yi)個(ge)時(shi)期(qi)內將(jiang)持續地加(jia)速(su)減(jian)少(shao),到2050年(nian)(nian)(nian)將(jiang)減(jian)少(shao)2億人。勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)轉(zhuan)為負增(zeng)(zeng)長對(dui)于中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)經(jing)濟(ji)而(er)言是一(yi)(yi)個(ge)重(zhong)大的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)變數(shu),不僅(jin)給勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)市場(chang)供(gong)(gong)求(qiu)(qiu)關系帶來(lai)結(jie)構(gou)性轉(zhuan)變,同時(shi)也對(dui)各種相關制(zhi)(zhi)度的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)改革提出(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)了迫切要求(qiu)(qiu)。
(二)人口撫養比變化趨勢的轉折
人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)撫(fu)(fu)養(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)變化的(de)轉(zhuan)折點(dian)出現(xian)于2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian),撫(fu)(fu)養(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)從(cong)前一(yi)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)34.2%提高(gao)到(dao)(dao)34.4%,從(cong)而終(zhong)結了(le)(le)持(chi)續了(le)(le)30多年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)下(xia)降(jiang)過程。導致(zhi)這(zhe)個(ge)(ge)(ge)轉(zhuan)折性變化的(de)直接原(yuan)因(yin)有(you)兩(liang)個(ge)(ge)(ge)。一(yi)個(ge)(ge)(ge)原(yuan)因(yin)是勞(lao)動(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)(ling)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)增(zeng)(zeng)長緩慢,2005~2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)總(zong)共增(zeng)(zeng)長了(le)(le)6.5%,2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)和(he)2012年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)僅(jin)(jin)(jin)僅(jin)(jin)(jin)增(zeng)(zeng)長了(le)(le)0.35%和(he)0.1%。15~64歲勞(lao)動(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)(ling)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)占(zhan)總(zong)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)的(de)比(bi)(bi)(bi)重的(de)轉(zhuan)折發(fa)生(sheng)在(zai)2012年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian),雖然比(bi)(bi)(bi)2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)峰值(74.4%)僅(jin)(jin)(jin)僅(jin)(jin)(jin)降(jiang)低了(le)(le)0.3個(ge)(ge)(ge)百分點(dian),但這(zhe)個(ge)(ge)(ge)轉(zhuan)折的(de)意(yi)義(yi)重大(da)。2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)勞(lao)動(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)(ling)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)降(jiang)到(dao)(dao)73.0%,使得(de)這(zhe)個(ge)(ge)(ge)下(xia)降(jiang)趨勢(shi)(shi)得(de)到(dao)(dao)確認。另一(yi)個(ge)(ge)(ge)原(yuan)因(yin)是老(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)出現(xian)了(le)(le)較快的(de)增(zeng)(zeng)長,2005~2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)長了(le)(le)21.8%,年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)長率(lv)為3.28%,遠遠超過勞(lao)動(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)(ling)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)增(zeng)(zeng)長速(su)度(du)。2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)以后(hou)老(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)增(zeng)(zeng)長率(lv)進(jin)一(yi)步提高(gao),2011~2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)平均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)長率(lv)達到(dao)(dao)4.26%,而勞(lao)動(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)(ling)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)自(zi)2013年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)起轉(zhuan)為負增(zeng)(zeng)長,這(zhe)使得(de)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)撫(fu)(fu)養(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)在(zai)2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)提高(gao)到(dao)(dao)37%。從(cong)未來發(fa)展趨勢(shi)(shi)看,由于勞(lao)動(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)(ling)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)加速(su)減少(shao)和(he)老(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)加速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)長,人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)撫(fu)(fu)養(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)將(jiang)(jiang)會持(chi)續提高(gao)。此外,政策調(diao)整后(hou)的(de)生(sheng)育率(lv)回升會在(zai)一(yi)定(ding)程度(du)上提高(gao)少(shao)兒(er)撫(fu)(fu)養(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi),因(yin)此人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)撫(fu)(fu)養(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提高(gao)的(de)幅(fu)度(du)將(jiang)(jiang)會進(jin)一(yi)步加大(da)。根(gen)據聯合國中(zhong)方案預測結果,未來的(de)40年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)里,少(shao)兒(er)撫(fu)(fu)養(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)基本上是在(zai)22~25之(zhi)(zhi)間窄幅(fu)波動(dong),而老(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)撫(fu)(fu)養(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)在(zai)2060年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)之(zhi)(zhi)前一(yi)直保持(chi)上升狀態,并在(zai)2028年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)左右超過少(shao)兒(er)撫(fu)(fu)養(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi),成為決定(ding)總(zong)撫(fu)(fu)養(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)變化趨勢(shi)(shi)的(de)主導因(yin)素(su)。
在(zai)(zai)(zai)其他條(tiao)件(jian)一(yi)定(ding)的(de)(de)(de)情(qing)況下,人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)高(gao)意味著(zhu)人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)性的(de)(de)(de)下降,邊際人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)紅利(li)為(wei)負(fu)(fu)(fu)。特別需要注意的(de)(de)(de)是(shi)(shi),人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)高(gao)有兩(liang)種情(qing)況,其一(yi)是(shi)(shi)由少兒撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)主導(dao)的(de)(de)(de)總撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)高(gao),其二是(shi)(shi)由老(lao)年撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)主導(dao)的(de)(de)(de)人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)總撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)高(gao)。或者說,同(tong)樣水平(ping)的(de)(de)(de)撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi),但內部結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)(gou)不(bu)同(tong),一(yi)種結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)(gou)是(shi)(shi)以(yi)(yi)負(fu)(fu)(fu)擔少兒人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)為(wei)主,另一(yi)種結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)(gou)是(shi)(shi)以(yi)(yi)負(fu)(fu)(fu)擔老(lao)年人(ren)為(wei)主。例如,2032年中國人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)將(jiang)回升到51%左右(you),與1994年的(de)(de)(de)水平(ping)相(xiang)當,但是(shi)(shi)1994年的(de)(de)(de)撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)(gou)中,少兒撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)占到83.4%,而2032年的(de)(de)(de)撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)(gou)中,老(lao)年撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)占到56%。這(zhe)兩(liang)種情(qing)況的(de)(de)(de)社會(hui)經濟含義有很大(da)差(cha)別,前者是(shi)(shi)對未來(lai)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)力的(de)(de)(de)投資,后(hou)者則是(shi)(shi)純粹的(de)(de)(de)消費,對于公共支出(chu)而言,這(zhe)兩(liang)種負(fu)(fu)(fu)擔的(de)(de)(de)意義也完全(quan)不(bu)同(tong)。中國未來(lai)撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)將(jiang)會(hui)在(zai)(zai)(zai)水平(ping)和結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)(gou)兩(liang)個(ge)維(wei)度(du)上(shang)發生(sheng)(sheng)變(bian)化,在(zai)(zai)(zai)水平(ping)維(wei)度(du)上(shang)將(jiang)會(hui)出(chu)現長達40年左右(you)的(de)(de)(de)上(shang)升趨勢,在(zai)(zai)(zai)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)(gou)維(wei)度(du)上(shang)將(jiang)發生(sheng)(sheng)從以(yi)(yi)少兒撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)為(wei)主的(de)(de)(de)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)(gou)轉變(bian)為(wei)以(yi)(yi)老(lao)年撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)為(wei)主的(de)(de)(de)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)(gou)。這(zhe)兩(liang)個(ge)維(wei)度(du)的(de)(de)(de)變(bian)化都會(hui)削弱(ruo)人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)的(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)性。
(三)生育政策的轉向和生育率的回升
如(ru)(ru)同許多處(chu)于(yu)后(hou)(hou)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)率(lv)轉變(bian)階段(duan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia),中國(guo)(guo)(guo)在(zai)完成了轉變(bian)之后(hou)(hou)也很快走向了很低(di)水平(ping)(ping)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)率(lv)。長期的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)低(di)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)率(lv)會(hui)(hui)導致高(gao)(gao)度的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)老齡(ling)化(hua)和人(ren)(ren)(ren)口衰退,從而(er)給社會(hui)(hui)經濟帶來多重(zhong)挑戰,因此世界(jie)上幾(ji)乎所(suo)有處(chu)于(yu)很低(di)和極低(di)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)水平(ping)(ping)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)都采取了支持和鼓勵生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)政策。對(dui)于(yu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)率(lv)轉變(bian)非常迅速的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)中國(guo)(guo)(guo)而(er)言(yan),如(ru)(ru)果(guo)(guo)低(di)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)率(lv)不能(neng)很快得(de)到(dao)扭轉,將會(hui)(hui)面臨比其他(ta)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)更為嚴峻的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)局面。2013年(nian)11月(yue),《中共中央關于(yu)全(quan)面深化(hua)改革若干(gan)重(zhong)大(da)問題(ti)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)決定》提(ti)出(chu)(chu)“啟(qi)動實施一方是獨生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)子女(nv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)夫(fu)婦可(ke)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)兩個(ge)孩(hai)子的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)政策”,2015年(nian)10月(yue)中共中央決定“全(quan)面實施一對(dui)夫(fu)婦可(ke)以(yi)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)兩個(ge)孩(hai)子政策”。政策實施后(hou)(hou),雖然生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)率(lv)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)幅度不盡如(ru)(ru)人(ren)(ren)(ren)意,但(dan)也已經顯現(xian)出(chu)(chu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)率(lv)對(dui)新生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)政策的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)積極反應(ying)。國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)統(tong)計(ji)局根(gen)據(ju)(ju)全(quan)國(guo)(guo)(guo)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口變(bian)動抽樣調查數據(ju)(ju)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)推算分(fen)析表明,2016年(nian)二(er)孩(hai)出(chu)(chu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)數量大(da)幅上升,明顯高(gao)(gao)于(yu)“十二(er)五”時期平(ping)(ping)均水平(ping)(ping),2017年(nian)二(er)孩(hai)數量進(jin)一步上升至883萬人(ren)(ren)(ren),比2016年(nian)增加了162萬人(ren)(ren)(ren);二(er)孩(hai)占全(quan)部(bu)出(chu)(chu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)比重(zhong)達(da)到(dao)51.2%,比2016年(nian)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)了11個(ge)百分(fen)點。在(zai)全(quan)部(bu)出(chu)(chu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)嬰兒中,二(er)孩(hai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)比例明顯提(ti)高(gao)(gao),并(bing)且超過了50%。根(gen)據(ju)(ju)世界(jie)銀行(xing)估計(ji),中國(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)總和生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)率(lv)從1996年(nian)開始(shi)一直低(di)于(yu)1.6,直到(dao)2013年(nian)回(hui)升到(dao)1.6,2016年(nian)為1.62。如(ru)(ru)果(guo)(guo)這個(ge)趨勢能(neng)夠得(de)到(dao)延續(xu),那么(me)中國(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)率(lv)就可(ke)以(yi)回(hui)升到(dao)一個(ge)相對(dui)安全(quan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)水平(ping)(ping)。
(四)老齡化動力機制的轉換
老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)進(jin)程并(bing)非只由(you)一(yi)種(zhong)力(li)(li)(li)(li)量推(tui)動(dong),因為(wei)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)是(shi)以(yi)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)占總人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)比重來衡(heng)量的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de),老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)是(shi)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)與其他年(nian)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)相對變化(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)結果(guo)。因此,有(you)三種(zhong)力(li)(li)(li)(li)量會(hui)(hui)推(tui)動(dong)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua),第一(yi)個(ge)力(li)(li)(li)(li)量是(shi)生(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)率下降導(dao)致(zhi)出生(sheng)(sheng)人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)減少,此時(shi)即使老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)緩慢甚(shen)至沒有(you)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang),老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)比重也會(hui)(hui)提高;第二(er)個(ge)力(li)(li)(li)(li)量是(shi)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang);第三個(ge)力(li)(li)(li)(li)量是(shi)長(chang)壽,即老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)人(ren)存活的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)年(nian)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)更高。由(you)人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)變化(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)內在機理和歷史邏輯所決定(ding),一(yi)個(ge)人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)群體(ti)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)過程是(shi)分別由(you)不同(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)力(li)(li)(li)(li)量遞次推(tui)進(jin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de),或(huo)者說,在老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)發(fa)展的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)不同(tong)階(jie)(jie)段(duan),推(tui)動(dong)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)主(zhu)導(dao)力(li)(li)(li)(li)量并(bing)不相同(tong)。據此,可以(yi)把老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)過程劃分為(wei)前(qian)期(qi)(qi)階(jie)(jie)段(duan)、中(zhong)期(qi)(qi)階(jie)(jie)段(duan)和后期(qi)(qi)階(jie)(jie)段(duan)。在老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)前(qian)期(qi)(qi)階(jie)(jie)段(duan),推(tui)動(dong)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)主(zhu)導(dao)力(li)(li)(li)(li)量是(shi)生(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)率的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)下降,中(zhong)期(qi)(qi)階(jie)(jie)段(duan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)主(zhu)導(dao)力(li)(li)(li)(li)量是(shi)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)人(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang),后期(qi)(qi)階(jie)(jie)段(duan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)主(zhu)導(dao)力(li)(li)(li)(li)量是(shi)長(chang)壽。
對于中國(guo)(guo)而言(yan),老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)的(de)前(qian)期(qi)(qi)階(jie)段(duan)是(shi)從(cong)(cong)1970年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開始(shi)(shi)到(dao)2010年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)結(jie)束這(zhe)里(li)的(de)階(jie)段(duan)劃分年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)份并非精確時(shi)間(jian)的(de)表達,而是(shi)大致(zhi)的(de)估計。即(ji)使如此(ci)(ci)(ci),也有一(yi)些依據:第(di)一(yi),中國(guo)(guo)的(de)生育(yu)率(lv)轉(zhuan)變從(cong)(cong)1970年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開始(shi)(shi),而老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)也是(shi)在(zai)這(zhe)一(yi)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)起步。第(di)二,從(cong)(cong)2010年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開始(shi)(shi),抗日戰爭結(jie)束后出生的(de)人(ren)開始(shi)(shi)進(jin)入(ru)(ru)老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian),緊跟其(qi)后是(shi)1950年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)代(dai)出生高(gao)峰隊(dui)(dui)列陸續(xu)進(jin)入(ru)(ru)老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian),這(zhe)個(ge)(ge)時(shi)期(qi)(qi)65歲及(ji)以上老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)口(kou)總共增(zeng)(zeng)加了(le)(le)8320萬(wan)(wan)(wan),平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)每年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)凈(jing)增(zeng)(zeng)208萬(wan)(wan)(wan),而15歲以下少兒人(ren)口(kou)減少了(le)(le)9017萬(wan)(wan)(wan),平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)每年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)凈(jing)減225萬(wan)(wan)(wan)。因此(ci)(ci)(ci),這(zhe)個(ge)(ge)時(shi)期(qi)(qi)老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)的(de)主導力量是(shi)1970年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開始(shi)(shi)的(de)生育(yu)率(lv)轉(zhuan)變及(ji)后來的(de)低生育(yu)率(lv)。在(zai)此(ci)(ci)(ci)期(qi)(qi)間(jian),老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)水平(ping)(ping)從(cong)(cong)3.76%提(ti)高(gao)到(dao)8.40%,平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)每年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)提(ti)高(gao)0.12個(ge)(ge)百分點。老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)的(de)中期(qi)(qi)階(jie)段(duan)是(shi)從(cong)(cong)2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開始(shi)(shi)到(dao)2040年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)左右(you)結(jie)束,從(cong)(cong)2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開始(shi)(shi),中國(guo)(guo)老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)口(kou)進(jin)入(ru)(ru)了(le)(le)一(yi)個(ge)(ge)快速(su)(su)增(zeng)(zeng)長時(shi)期(qi)(qi),2010~2040年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)口(kou)將(jiang)(jiang)總共增(zeng)(zeng)加2.24億人(ren),年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)長率(lv)為3.62%,平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)每年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)凈(jing)增(zeng)(zeng)746萬(wan)(wan)(wan)。在(zai)此(ci)(ci)(ci)期(qi)(qi)間(jian),1950年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)代(dai)和1960年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)代(dai)出生高(gao)峰隊(dui)(dui)列將(jiang)(jiang)全部(bu)進(jin)入(ru)(ru)老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)。在(zai)老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)口(kou)快速(su)(su)增(zeng)(zeng)長的(de)同時(shi),總人(ren)口(kou)將(jiang)(jiang)在(zai)2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)左右(you)開始(shi)(shi)出現負增(zeng)(zeng)長,這(zhe)兩種相(xiang)反的(de)變化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)趨(qu)勢進(jin)一(yi)步提(ti)高(gao)了(le)(le)老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)的(de)發展速(su)(su)度,老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)水平(ping)(ping)在(zai)2040年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)將(jiang)(jiang)達到(dao)23.84%,平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)每年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)提(ti)高(gao)0.51個(ge)(ge)百分點。與前(qian)一(yi)個(ge)(ge)階(jie)段(duan)相(xiang)比(bi),中期(qi)(qi)階(jie)段(duan)老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)速(su)(su)度提(ti)高(gao)了(le)(le)3倍(bei)。因此(ci)(ci)(ci),中國(guo)(guo)老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)的(de)動力機(ji)制已經轉(zhuan)變為以老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)口(kou)增(zeng)(zeng)長為主導力量。
到(dao)2040年(nian)(nian)(nian)左(zuo)右,中國將(jiang)進(jin)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)后期階(jie)段(duan),即(ji)以長(chang)(chang)壽(shou)(shou)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)主導力量的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)階(jie)段(duan),這(zhe)個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)階(jie)段(duan)也(ye)可(ke)稱為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)高(gao)(gao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)階(jie)段(duan)。到(dao)目(mu)前(qian)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)止,學術界(jie)對于(yu)高(gao)(gao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)或(huo)者高(gao)(gao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)社(she)會的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)標(biao)(biao)(biao)準(zhun)還沒(mei)有(you)一(yi)(yi)個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)明確的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)定義,或(huo)者被(bei)普遍接受(shou)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)定義。考(kao)慮到(dao)這(zhe)個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)情(qing)況,可(ke)以基于(yu)歷(li)史觀(guan)察歸(gui)納出(chu)可(ke)用于(yu)判斷(duan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)標(biao)(biao)(biao)準(zhun)。我(wo)們選(xuan)擇了(le)兩個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)參(can)照系,一(yi)(yi)個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)是高(gao)(gao)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)國家(jia)(jia)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均水平(ping)(ping)(ping),另(ling)一(yi)(yi)個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)是目(mu)前(qian)世界(jie)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)最長(chang)(chang)壽(shou)(shou)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)國家(jia)(jia)日(ri)(ri)本(ben)(ben)。之所以選(xuan)擇這(zhe)兩個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)參(can)照系,是因(yin)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)其老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)進(jin)程(cheng)遠(yuan)遠(yuan)走(zou)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)了(le)其他國家(jia)(jia)和地區(qu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)前(qian)面,并可(ke)以呈現(xian)一(yi)(yi)個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)完(wan)整(zheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)過程(cheng)。選(xuan)取(qu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)參(can)照指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)包括四個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge):(1)出(chu)生時(shi)(shi)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均預(yu)期壽(shou)(shou)命(ming)達到(dao)80歲(sui)(sui);(2)60歲(sui)(sui)時(shi)(shi)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均預(yu)期壽(shou)(shou)命(ming)達到(dao)25歲(sui)(sui);(3)80歲(sui)(sui)及以上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)總人(ren)(ren)(ren)口中占比(bi)(bi)達到(dao)5%;(4)80歲(sui)(sui)及以上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)65歲(sui)(sui)及以上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口中占比(bi)(bi)達到(dao)25%。日(ri)(ri)本(ben)(ben)是在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)2006年(nian)(nian)(nian)同時(shi)(shi)滿足了(le)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)述(shu)條(tiao)(tiao)件(jian);而高(gao)(gao)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)國家(jia)(jia)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)2005年(nian)(nian)(nian)滿足了(le)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(3)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)條(tiao)(tiao)件(jian),在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)2019年(nian)(nian)(nian)滿足指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(4)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)條(tiao)(tiao)件(jian),并分別在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)2012年(nian)(nian)(nian)和2024年(nian)(nian)(nian)滿足指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(1)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)條(tiao)(tiao)件(jian)和指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(2)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)條(tiao)(tiao)件(jian)。如果稍微放松指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(2)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)條(tiao)(tiao)件(jian)高(gao)(gao)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)國家(jia)(jia)2015~2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)60歲(sui)(sui)時(shi)(shi)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均預(yu)期壽(shou)(shou)命(ming)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)24.5歲(sui)(sui),高(gao)(gao)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)國家(jia)(jia)整(zheng)體上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)應該是在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)2019年(nian)(nian)(nian)進(jin)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)高(gao)(gao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)社(she)會。日(ri)(ri)本(ben)(ben)和高(gao)(gao)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)國家(jia)(jia)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)情(qing)況表(biao)明,上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)述(shu)4項指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)水平(ping)(ping)(ping)之間(jian)(jian)具有(you)高(gao)(gao)度的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)協同性和一(yi)(yi)致性,因(yin)此可(ke)以作為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)高(gao)(gao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)或(huo)高(gao)(gao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)社(she)會的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)標(biao)(biao)(biao)準(zhun)。按(an)照這(zhe)個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)標(biao)(biao)(biao)準(zhun),中國將(jiang)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)2040~2045年(nian)(nian)(nian)間(jian)(jian)進(jin)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)高(gao)(gao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)社(she)會,根據(ju)聯合國中方案預(yu)測,2040~2045年(nian)(nian)(nian)中國人(ren)(ren)(ren)口出(chu)生時(shi)(shi)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均預(yu)期壽(shou)(shou)命(ming)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)80.34歲(sui)(sui),60歲(sui)(sui)時(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均預(yu)期壽(shou)(shou)命(ming)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)22.87歲(sui)(sui);80歲(sui)(sui)及以上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)總人(ren)(ren)(ren)口中占比(bi)(bi)于(yu)2041年(nian)(nian)(nian)達到(dao)5.15%,在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)65歲(sui)(sui)及以上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口中的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)占比(bi)(bi)于(yu)2045年(nian)(nian)(nian)達到(dao)24.9%。
(五)城鎮化已進入中后期發展階段
按(an)照國(guo)(guo)際(ji)經驗,人口(kou)城(cheng)(cheng)鎮化(hua)進程可(ke)以劃分(fen)為三個發展階(jie)段,在達(da)到(dao)50%之前是(shi)前期階(jie)段,從50%到(dao)70%是(shi)中期階(jie)段,從70%到(dao)80%是(shi)后(hou)期階(jie)段。城(cheng)(cheng)鎮化(hua)水平(ping)(ping)達(da)到(dao)80%即標志(zhi)著城(cheng)(cheng)鎮化(hua)的完成。根(gen)(gen)據聯合國(guo)(guo)(United Nations,2018)的估計,2015年(nian)發達(da)國(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)人口(kou)城(cheng)(cheng)鎮化(hua)的平(ping)(ping)均水平(ping)(ping)為78.1%,高收入國(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)的平(ping)(ping)均水平(ping)(ping)為80.9%。一(yi)些國(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)在達(da)到(dao)這個水平(ping)(ping)后(hou)還會進一(yi)步(bu)提高,例如2015年(nian)比利時達(da)到(dao)97.9%,日本達(da)到(dao)91.4%,丹麥(mai)達(da)到(dao)87.5%,瑞典(dian)達(da)到(dao)86.6%。還有一(yi)些人口(kou)規模很小或地理條件特殊的國(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)和地區超過(guo)(guo)90%甚(shen)至達(da)到(dao)100%。此外,拉(la)(la)美的烏拉(la)(la)圭(95.5%)、阿根(gen)(gen)廷(91.5%)、委內瑞拉(la)(la)(88.2%)、智利(87.4%)、巴西(85.8%)等國(guo)(guo)的城(cheng)(cheng)鎮化(hua)水平(ping)(ping)也非常高,但這些國(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)存在著人口(kou)過(guo)(guo)度城(cheng)(cheng)鎮化(hua)問題。
中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)人口(kou)城(cheng)鎮化(hua)進(jin)程(cheng)(cheng)自1978年(nian)啟動(dong),從(cong)2000年(nian)開(kai)始加速,到2017年(nian)總共提高了40個百(bai)分點。按照2000~2017年(nian)的(de)(de)發展速度,2018年(nian)的(de)(de)人口(kou)城(cheng)鎮化(hua)水平(ping)可以達到60%。這標志著(zhu)中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)人口(kou)城(cheng)鎮化(hua)進(jin)程(cheng)(cheng)目前已進(jin)入中(zhong)期發展階(jie)段(duan)的(de)(de)后(hou)半期,根據聯合國(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)預測(United Nations,2018),中(zhong)期發展階(jie)段(duan)將在(zai)2030年(nian)結束(shu),屆(jie)時的(de)(de)人口(kou)城(cheng)鎮化(hua)水平(ping)為70%;從(cong)2031年(nian)開(kai)始進(jin)入后(hou)期發展階(jie)段(duan),在(zai)2050年(nian)達到80%,這意味著(zhu)中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)人口(kou)城(cheng)鎮化(hua)進(jin)程(cheng)(cheng)還需(xu)要30年(nian)左(zuo)右(you)才能結束(shu)。
(六)人口負增長時代即將到來
對于中國的(de)(de)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)而言,21世紀(ji)上(shang)半葉(xie)發生(sheng)的(de)(de)最大的(de)(de)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)事件莫過于人(ren)(ren)口(kou)負增長(chang)時代的(de)(de)到來。根據聯合國中方案總和生(sheng)育率設(she)定(ding)為(wei)2015~2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)1.63,2020~2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)1.66,2025~2030年(nian)(nian)(nian)1.69,2030~2035年(nian)(nian)(nian)1.71,2035~2040年(nian)(nian)(nian)1.72,2040~2045年(nian)(nian)(nian)1.74,2045~2050年(nian)(nian)(nian)1.75,2050~2055年(nian)(nian)(nian)1.76,2055~2060年(nian)(nian)(nian)1.77,2060~2065年(nian)(nian)(nian)1.77。預測(ce),中國人(ren)(ren)口(kou)將(jiang)在2029年(nian)(nian)(nian)達到峰值14.42億,從(cong)2030年(nian)(nian)(nian)開始(shi)進入持(chi)續的(de)(de)負增長(chang),2050年(nian)(nian)(nian)減(jian)少(shao)到13.64億,2065年(nian)(nian)(nian)減(jian)少(shao)到12.48億,即縮(suo)減(jian)到1996年(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)規(gui)模。如果總和生(sheng)育率一直保(bao)持(chi)在1.6的(de)(de)水平(ping),人(ren)(ren)口(kou)負增長(chang)將(jiang)提前(qian)到2027年(nian)(nian)(nian)出現,2065年(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)減(jian)少(shao)到11.72億,相(xiang)當于1990年(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)規(gui)模。
長(chang)(chang)期(qi)持(chi)續(xu)的人(ren)口(kou)負(fu)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)究竟會(hui)(hui)造成怎樣的社會(hui)(hui)經濟后果?從(cong)理論(lun)邏輯上看,長(chang)(chang)期(qi)的人(ren)口(kou)衰退,尤其是伴隨(sui)著不斷加劇的老(lao)齡化,勢(shi)必會(hui)(hui)帶來非常不利(li)的社會(hui)(hui)經濟后果。中(zhong)國的人(ren)口(kou)負(fu)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)已經勢(shi)不可當(dang),從(cong)現在開(kai)始亟須開(kai)展研究和進行政策(ce)儲(chu)備。
互聯網使用對中低收入人群有顯著影響
研究發現:第(di)一,個(ge)體(ti)(ti)有互聯(lian)網(wang)(wang)使(shi)(shi)用(yong)行為可以使(shi)(shi)個(ge)體(ti)(ti)年勞動收(shou)入(ru)(ru)增加46.52%;第(di)二,互聯(lian)網(wang)(wang)使(shi)(shi)用(yong)對中低(di)收(shou)入(ru)(ru)人(ren)群有顯著影(ying)響,對高(gao)(gao)收(shou)入(ru)(ru)人(ren)群沒有顯著影(ying)響。具體(ti)(ti)來說,使(shi)(shi)用(yong)互聯(lian)網(wang)(wang)讓處(chu)在25%和(he)(he)50%分位(wei)數上的(de)就(jiu)業者的(de)年工(gong)資水平分別提高(gao)(gao)了11950.23元和(he)(he)8371.39元;第(di)三,使(shi)(shi)用(yong)互聯(lian)網(wang)(wang)的(de)中高(gao)(gao)技能勞動者收(shou)入(ru)(ru)提高(gao)(gao)了83.39%,遠(yuan)高(gao)(gao)于總體(ti)(ti)樣本(ben)回(hui)歸結果,使(shi)(shi)用(yong)互聯(lian)網(wang)(wang)對低(di)技能勞動者沒有顯著影(ying)響。
因此,綠皮(pi)書建議:第一,降低數(shu)字化門(men)檻(jian)以提升勞(lao)動(dong)者收入。由于(yu)(yu)我國的(de)區(qu)域發(fa)展不平(ping)衡,勞(lao)動(dong)者受(shou)教育水平(ping)和(he)(he)互聯網使用能力差異巨大,我國應當(dang)在(zai)國家層面降低數(shu)字化門(men)檻(jian),提升低技能勞(lao)動(dong)者對(dui)于(yu)(yu)互聯網的(de)基本使用能力,開展大量(liang)的(de)互聯網技能培(pei)訓課程,降低不同群(qun)體間的(de)“數(shu)字鴻溝”。同時,隨著新(xin)經濟和(he)(he)新(xin)就(jiu)業的(de)迅猛發(fa)展,新(xin)的(de)勞(lao)動(dong)保護(hu)法(fa)律亟(ji)待出臺(tai),新(xin)型勞(lao)動(dong)關系有(you)待確立。但在(zai)新(xin)的(de)法(fa)律法(fa)規(gui)和(he)(he)政(zheng)(zheng)策文件的(de)干預(yu)過程中要(yao)警惕(ti)政(zheng)(zheng)府對(dui)市(shi)場(chang)經濟的(de)過度(du)干預(yu)。在(zai)新(xin)經濟發(fa)展中,政(zheng)(zheng)府應當(dang)扮演更(geng)重要(yao)的(de)角色,減少直接干預(yu),側(ce)重于(yu)(yu)為市(shi)場(chang)提供必要(yao)的(de)政(zheng)(zheng)策與制度(du)條件。
第二,擴大(da)高(gao)(gao)等教(jiao)育(yu)(yu)規(gui)模和(he)(he)創新能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)以提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)技(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)。從(cong)本文(wen)研(yan)究可以看出,互(hu)聯(lian)(lian)網(wang)(wang)使用(yong)為(wei)(wei)高(gao)(gao)技(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)者(zhe)提(ti)(ti)供(gong)更加豐富的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)就(jiu)業(ye)機(ji)會和(he)(he)靈活的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)就(jiu)業(ye)選擇(ze),并在(zai)一定程(cheng)度(du)上惡(e)化了低(di)(di)技(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)者(zhe)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)就(jiu)業(ye)空間。互(hu)聯(lian)(lian)網(wang)(wang)加劇了不同(tong)技(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)者(zhe)間的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)結構(gou)性(xing)失衡,隨(sui)著(zhu)互(hu)聯(lian)(lian)網(wang)(wang)規(gui)模的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)擴大(da)、個體互(hu)聯(lian)(lian)網(wang)(wang)使用(yong)和(he)(he)數(shu)字人(ren)(ren)力(li)資本的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)提(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao),中高(gao)(gao)技(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)者(zhe)在(zai)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)上獲得更高(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)收益,而互(hu)聯(lian)(lian)網(wang)(wang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)發展(zhan)對于(yu)低(di)(di)技(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)者(zhe)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)收入(ru)提(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)并不顯著(zhu)。考(kao)慮到低(di)(di)技(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)者(zhe)更可能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)被技(ji)(ji)術(shu)偏向(xiang)型(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)互(hu)聯(lian)(lian)網(wang)(wang)所替代(dai),無論是對于(yu)沒有進(jin)入(ru)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)低(di)(di)學歷潛在(zai)就(jiu)業(ye)者(zhe)還(huan)是低(di)(di)技(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)者(zhe)來說(shuo),互(hu)聯(lian)(lian)網(wang)(wang)時(shi)(shi)代(dai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)格局都(dou)不利于(yu)他們的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)就(jiu)業(ye)前景(jing)。因此,隨(sui)著(zhu)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)出生率增速(su)(su)減(jian)緩,人(ren)(ren)口(kou)老齡(ling)化增速(su)(su)加快(kuai),只有進(jin)一步擴大(da)高(gao)(gao)等教(jiao)育(yu)(yu)規(gui)模,才(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)改善(shan)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)人(ren)(ren)才(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)技(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)結構(gou),為(wei)(wei)“中國(guo)制造2025”和(he)(he)高(gao)(gao)端服務業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)轉(zhuan)型(xing)提(ti)(ti)供(gong)足夠(gou)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)人(ren)(ren)才(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)需求。同(tong)時(shi)(shi),隨(sui)著(zhu)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)進(jin)步速(su)(su)度(du)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)加快(kuai)和(he)(he)互(hu)聯(lian)(lian)網(wang)(wang)普及程(cheng)度(du)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng),我(wo)國(guo)高(gao)(gao)等教(jiao)育(yu)(yu)應當更加重(zhong)(zhong)視培(pei)養(yang)創新能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li),在(zai)提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)技(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)教(jiao)育(yu)(yu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)同(tong)時(shi)(shi),培(pei)育(yu)(yu)更多具(ju)有創新精(jing)神的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)高(gao)(gao)等本科教(jiao)育(yu)(yu)人(ren)(ren)才(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)和(he)(he)具(ju)有工匠精(jing)神的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)高(gao)(gao)等職業(ye)教(jiao)育(yu)(yu)人(ren)(ren)才(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai),把(ba)“創新能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)”作為(wei)(wei)改善(shan)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)技(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)人(ren)(ren)才(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)結構(gou)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)(zhong)中之重(zhong)(zhong)。
轉自社科文獻: